Truckers Say Market’s Wrong, Economy Grows

(Forbes.com – Daniel Fisher)

A little-noticed indicator that taps directly into the movement of freight offers a hopeful contrast to the dismal performance of the stock market lately. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index jumped 3.1% in May, the largest monthly increase since February 1999. The index tracks credit-card purchases of diesel fuel at truckstops across the country and provides a real-time indication of how much freight is moving from ports and factories to consumers.

The jump in the PCI index joins positive signals from other indexes including manufacturing, manufacturing shipments and retail sales, all of which have been rising steadily from mid-2009 lows.

The only indices that remain stubbornly low are employment and retail inventories. Even those are arguably good signs for future profits, as manufacturers and retailers tuck in extra earnings for at least a while before adding employees and inventory to their overhead.

Stock markets have been forecasting an entirely different scenario lately, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling 16% since April. Economist Edward Leamer of UCLA says the stock market’s got it wrong. “The market is still dealing with the fear effects of 2008 – investors are worried it will happen again,” says Leamer. “This is actual transactions. This is truckers buying fuel.” Read more here.

Related: More Evidence of Booming U.S. Demand: Traffic at LA Ports Surged in May (Business Insider)