Manitoba Export Growth to Be Among Best in 2007 and 2008, Says EDC

(Export Development Canada)

Manitoba’s export growth of 15.1 per cent will be one of the country’s best in 2007 according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). The province’s total exports are expected to increase by a more moderate 7 per cent in 2008, second only to Saskatchewan.

“Gains in primary industries led the way to Manitoba’s strong ranking in 2007,” said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. “Manitoba’s outlook for 2008 is still positive, but the impact of waning U.S. consumer demand and the strengthening of the Canadian dollar will take its toll.”

Exports to non-U.S. destinations continue to be strong in 2007, led by shipments of metals with major increases in sales to Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Bio-fuel demand has greatly bolstered the price of Manitoba’s leading crops. In 2007 export earnings of coarse grains, wheat and oilseed have registered extremely impressive year-to-date gains of 41 per cent, 45 per cent and 59 per cent respectively. The continued expansion of U.S. ethanol capacity will apply upward pressure on coarse grains prices and volumes through the balance of the year. Overall, major grain prices are poised to remain strong with Manitoba exporters gaining from tight global supplies and firm demand. Agri-food exports overall are expected to increase by 20 per cent, with growth of 13 per cent forecast for 2008.

The lifting of U.S. border restrictions should serve as a boon to the province’s cattle producers, but concerns remain over the strength of the hog industry. Relatively weak prices for hogs and pork products in early 2007 led to fragile growth in the industry while higher feed costs heavily impacted producers. There appears to be an excess supply of hogs within the North American market. The recent rejection of Canadian and U.S. pork shipments by China has dashed hopes that market would pick-up on volumes, leaving producers with a pork tonnage that overruns demand, in turn depressing prices.

Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.3 per cent in 2007, and 2.6 per cent in 2008. Key price gains in commodities have put Canadian exports on track to increase by 3.7 per cent in 2007, but the impact of weaker U.S. and global demand will have the export growth rate more than halved to 1.5 per cent in 2008. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 4.9 per cent growth rate in 2007, and 4.5 per cent in 2008. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.