Canadian Economy Stalling as Exports Hit Hard: Bank of Canada

The Canadian economy has largely stalled as a result of the worsening credit crunch and the slumping U.S. economy that has robbed manufacturers of their traditional market, the Bank of Canada says.

The assessment in the central bank’s quarterly monetary report gives a clearer understanding of what the bank’s governing council was weighing Tuesday when it slashed its key interest rate by half a percentage point to three per cent.

After predicting in January that an upturn would begin this quarter, the bank now says Canada has entered an economic flat spot with growth in the current quarter barely above recessionary levels at a 0.3 per cent annualized rate, and won’t recover fully until 2010.

The bleaker outlook for the economy comes amid other potential bad news for Canadian consumers:

• CIBC World Markets predicted Thursday that national average gasoline prices, now about $1.23 a litre, will top $1.40 this summer and $2.25 by 2012 as crude oil prices continue to soar and reach US$225 a barrel in four years.

• The country’s largest bread maker, Canada Bread Co. (TSX:CBY), warned that consumers can expect to pay more for bread, bagels and other flour-based products after a 32 per cent drop in first-quarter profit amid “significant margin compression due to rising wheat prices.”

But Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney said Canada won’t fall into recession thanks to the relatively strong internal economy buttressed by oil and mineral exports and the record number of Canadians who have jobs.

“The decline in exports ... is counterbalanced and in our view more than counterbalanced by the strong domestic demand,” he said.

Still, Carney noted that the bank will likely have to put more stimulus into the economy over and above the 1.5 percentage points it has cut from the overnight rate since December.

Part of the reason is that tight credit conditions have increased the cost that the chartered banks pay for capital, causing them to pass on only a portion of the central bank’s stimulus to businesses and individuals in the form of lower borrowing costs.